The contest was set, and then it was set again. The ultra-competitive four-way Governor’s Race became a two-way race when Establishment Politician Dusty Johnson and Grassroots Champion Jon Hanson fell off the board. That left MAGA Incarnate Toby Doeden at the top of the totem pole, with old-school Larry Rhoden trailing close behind. Daniel Ahlers faces the winner.
The two men left couldn’t appear more different.
Toby has a big personality and rhetoric everyone knows by now: “Drain the Pierre Swamp, South Dakota Trump, South Dakota DOGE, Save South Dakota.” He’s running the same messaging our President used twice to win this state and the country. It worked before, and Doeden’s counting on it to push him over the edge.
But is it as popular as he thinks?
Look at the legislative primaries around the state. Some of the biggest “red hatters” lost to a different brand of Republican. The Liberty/Grassroots Caucus took a bloodbath – Jon Carly, Dylan Jordan, Logan Manhart, and others went down. That signal should worry the Doeden camp. Their messaging was very similar. Their devotion to Trump’s vision was as well.
Those results mean Republicans in South Dakota may be getting colder to the theatrics and drama that come with a Trump presidency and a Trumpish politician in Pierre.
I predict that, nationwide, as Republican politicians confront life without Donald Trump re-election campaigns, there will be an inner-party civil war over whether MAGA survives. If Doeden wins or loses based on that messaging, it will be very telling who wins that war here.
Across the arena stands another man. He’s not theatrical like his opponent and definitely not as dramatic as his own predecessor. He’s known for plain talk, gruffness, maybe a little cantankerism. But his team is more modern than he is on social media, especially his son, Reggie Rhoden, and campaign brain, Ian Fury putting a lot of work in.
Across the state, Rhoden-backed candidates won. Old-guard legislators like Gary Cammack punched tickets back to Pierre. That’s a good sign for Governor Rhoden if you read legislative races like local polls. You have to feel good, even if you didn’t win your West River stronghold. He should safely absorb most former Dusty Johnson voters.
But where do the former Jon Hanson voters go?
Six months ago, the answer was obvious: to Toby Doeden. But over the course of the primary election, a massive rift appeared on the anti-establishment side of the Republican Party. Doeden and Hanson split that base. Inevitably, some Hanson voters will swallow their pride and vote for Toby. But many are already committed to Larry Rhoden, and they’re doing that out of spite.
There are a couple of extra X-factors in Rhoden’s favor: the lieutenant governors and the party hoppers.
We know Rhoden’s Lt. Governor is Tony Venhuizen. We don’t know whom Doeden might pick – just rumors. Many voters are suspicious and argue he should reveal his pick before the runoff because it could change their vote. I agree. The voters deserve to know who they’re actually voting for.
Droves of people are switching party affiliation to vote in this runoff – even more than they switched for the initial primary. Doeden might have led among Republicans, but his polarity isn’t attracting Independents and is attracting zero Democrats. The vast majority of switchers are changing parties explicitly to vote against Toby Doeden. They have until July 13 to register as a Republican and take part.
Rhoden’s strategic plan probably sounds like: “You’ll win if you just don’t screw it up.” That’s why he publicly announced he won’t be accepting further invitations for a head-to-head debate or forum with his runoff opponent. The 2020 President Biden Strategy: Stay Home and Stay Hidden.
It’s a risky wager, and voters are taking notice. Many of them are upset that he won’t debate. However, Larry struggled during the four-person governor debates. In a single head-to-head, there’s nowhere to hide, and smoother-talking Toby Doeden would have a field day – whether or not the Rhoden campaign agreed with the arguments.
Personally, I understand the strategic bet of not debating and coasting through the runoff. But we should have a governor – whoever it is – willing to debate anytime, anywhere, against anyone, to build a stronger South Dakota. I hope, for morality: Governor Rhoden agrees to debate Toby Doeden.
The runoff duel on July 28th isn’t just about Doeden vs Rhoden. It’s a test case. Does the Trump-style message still move South Dakota voters when Trump isn’t on the ballot? Or are voters ready for less theater and more steady governance?
The legislative primaries suggest the ground is shifting. The party switchers prove the ground can always move. Doeden is betting the Trump formula still wins. Rhoden is betting that “boring” beats “bombastic” in a one-on-one.
If Doeden wins, MAGA conservatism proves it can survive on its own brand in South Dakota. If Rhoden wins, it proves the party wants the drama turned down.
Either way, we’ll know what kind of Republican Party is emerging after Trump. Whoever takes the oath in Pierre will have to answer the question voters are really asking: Do you show up to fight for us, or show up just for the fight?
Collin Duprel is a guest columnist for the Rapid City Post. Opinions expressed may not necessarily represent the views of the Rapid City Post, its affiliates, or advertisers.
