You catch more flies with honey than vinegar, as the adage goes. That line will be cemented in history as the cautionary tale of why Toby Doeden’s campaign lost traction, and why I’m predicting Governor Larry Rhoden will become the Republican nominee in the gubernatorial general election.

At the end of the day, the first rule of political campaigns is simple: “Be Popular.” Break that down, and it means a lot of things. Make lots of friends. Gain allies. Build coalitions. Raise money.

Beyond the candidate, supporters have that same duty. They need to follow the same rule if they want to see their candidate win. The candidate can’t be everywhere at once. A successful campaign hinges on supporters carrying that message and creating unity.

The worst thing for a candidate can actually be supporters who are counterproductive to the message and to the team.

Toby Doeden is a likable candidate. He speaks well, has a good handshake, and a relatively clear goal for what he wants to do with South Dakota. “Drain the Pierre Swamp,” “Tear Out Corruption,” and “Eliminate Property Taxes” have been hallmark phrases of his political bid.

Wherever Toby goes, he makes friends. He used that ability to finish first in a contested four-way primary. But he didn’t win it “enough” to walk away with the nomination. He didn’t crack the 35% ceiling, and some of his messaging came back to bite him.

While he led with 30.6%, the fatal flaw was the constant barrage of attacks launched at the other campaigns. From the outside looking in, it looked like Team Doeden’s math hinged on winning the primary flat-out. When that didn’t happen, so much mud was already slung that the hole they dug was too deep to escape.

They needed to figure out how they would acquire the supporters of Dusty Johnson and, more importantly, Jon Hansen to win the election — after spending months calling Dusty a corrupt career politician and trying their hardest to pretend Jon Hansen wasn’t even a candidate.

With only a 5% edge on Larry Rhoden, the 44% of votes between Dusty and Jon were critical and never acquired.

The Emerson poll now shows Larry Rhoden ahead by 30 points, with only 7% undecided. Kalshi has 88% odds on Rhoden winning. Nearly all of Dusty Johnson’s former supporters have fallen in line behind Rhoden, and close to 70% of Jon Hansen’s people have as well. Furthermore, Emerson suggests Toby may have even lost 10% of his previous supporters.

The last-minute Jarred Bossly endorsement will draw some people over, but it’s a little too late in the race to make the impact it needs. A big press conference unmasking a ringer Lt. Governor candidate might move the needle, but less than a week from Election Day, it’s another day-late-and-dollar-short scenario.

If political polling has any validity, it’s not really a race anymore. It’s just a matter of time before the only car left running crosses the finish line.

But what stopped them from acquiring those voters? What caused all the opposition to school together like tuna and leave the shad fish in the minority?

The adage about flies and honey.

Politics is “People Science.” Those desperately needed voters felt targeted by negative messaging.

Your supporters’ image becomes your image. When your image becomes synonymous with regionally unpopular social media mouthpieces who spend more energy complaining about other people’s hats and slinging insults during their commentary time than they do selling a campaign dream, they chase away five potential Toby supporters for every one they gain.

Toby made friends and ran the most successful name-recognition, self-funded campaign South Dakota has ever seen. His loudest surrogates made enemies. In a runoff, enemies vote. In a runoff in South Dakota, enemies even change parties to vote.

Rhoden understood the assignment. He let Johnson voters come home and gave Hansen voters a place to land without asking them to love him. He banked on the fact that in South Dakota, “steady” would beat “scorched earth” when you only need 50% plus one. He dodged another debate like he dodges questions about lab grown meat, and kept quiet to pull into a large lead.

Doeden ran a primary campaign and made enemies out of needed friends. Rhoden ran a general election campaign that gave the majority a place to fill a ballot circle.

Honey wins runoffs. Vinegar wins clicks. On July 28th, South Dakota will choose honey, and then vinegar will have to decide what to do next.

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