The United States Senate race in South Dakota took a sharp turn Tuesday when Democrat Julian Beaudion dropped out. Until then, three candidates were in: Beaudion, a Sioux Falls business owner, Republican incumbent Sen. Mike Rounds, and independent veteran Brian Bengs.
That diverse throuple is now a couple. It’s Rounds versus Bengs, head-to-head.
I check my luck when it comes to writing about politics in South Dakota. With just the right amount, I was able to speak on every candidate in the governor’s race because I had met them all. In the Senate race, I’m fortunate again to have firsthand experience.
In 2022, as many readers know, I was the Libertarian candidate for U.S. House against Republican incumbent Rep. Dusty Johnson. At the same time, Brian Bengs was running against Sen. John Thune as a Democrat in the Senate race. I spent a lot of time on the road that year, and I got to know Brian.
Where there’s blood in the water, there’s sharks. During election season, county fairs, powwows, football games and festivals become blood in the water for political candidates. Over time, after being at enough of the same blood pools by coincidence trying to meet voters, Bengs became my friend. A couple of years later I signed on to help him with a constitutional amendment campaign.
We don’t agree on everything. We argue respectfully. But he’s still a guy you can have a beer with, and in South Dakota, that matters.
I spent time with Julian Beaudion too. I found him to be a family man, personally funny, well-spoken and a believer in fighting to make our state and country better. Again, we have civil disagreements, but I never got the impression his goals as a candidate were anything other than for his fellow South Dakotans’ benefit.
Typically, independents, Libertarians and other non-major-party candidates get called spoilers. Some strategists theorize that if they stay in the race, they’ll siphon votes others are entitled to. But it’s always more complex than that, depending on where the race is held.
Here’s an unpleasant reality the non-status-quo crowd in South Dakota struggles with, and it’s something I learned on the road — and I know Brian did too: Party matters to voters. In a big way.
Republicans in South Dakota outnumber non-Republicans by more than 2-to-1. That means, for a non-Republican to win statewide, that candidate must win Republican votes. Period.
When I was on the road in my own campaign, I heard more than once: “I agree with you on almost everything, but I’m not going to vote for a different party.”
That doesn’t mean a Democrat or Libertarian could never win here. But the ask is higher. South Dakotans are conservative across party lines, and a liberal or progressive candidate can’t win statewide today.
The non-Republican candidate gets stuck with the liberal label by default. Then they have to walk a tightrope — keep progressive voters while appealing to disenchanted conservatives.
Billie Sutton did this in 2018. By doing so, the Democrat came closer than any non-Republican has to winning the governor’s mansion in decades. He lost to Kristi Noem by 3 percentage points.
But an independent isn’t from a different party. An independent has no party behind them. If that independent also has money, volunteers and a message that can appeal to Republicans? They might have a chance.
Bengs’ team has released fundraising reports showing he’s raised more than many former major-party challengers. He has volunteers. He has a ground game. Now, he has a two-way race where the options are officially him or Rounds.
Rounds will actually have to campaign if he wants to keep his seat. He’ll have to debate Bengs, too. When it was a three-way race, Rounds was the comfortable front-runner and all he had to do was wait to win: no debates, no meet and greets. Today, he can’t count on a split opposition vote.
That doesn’t make Rounds an underdog. He’s a former governor with high name ID and a full campaign account. But it does make this a real race. In South Dakota, real Senate races are rare.
Bengs is betting that veterans, independents and frustrated Republicans are ready for a change. He’s also betting, accurately, that Democrats aren’t going to vote against him. Rounds is betting that party loyalty still rules.
On Tuesday, the math said Brian and Julian were in a race for second place. Now, the math has changed. We find out if the state’s mood has too.
Collin Duprel is a guest columnist for the Rapid City Post. Opinions expressed may not necessarily represent the views of the Rapid City Post, its affiliates, or advertisers.
