Who could have predicted that Kristi Noem, as Secretary of Homeland Security, would end up with questionable spending, personal scrutiny, and some shameless self-promotion?

Only everyone in South Dakota. 

Former Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem was fired from her position last week. Still, her relief from duty was more of a pivot to avoid an extended audit of DHS by Congress and eventual impeachment proceedings that would have damaged the Trump Administration’s goals. Kristi Noem, in the style of Icarus, flew just a little bit too close to the Sun before having her wings melt. Except this time, the wax wings were a luxury jet, complete with a queen-sized bedroom. 

However, it wasn’t just the luxury jet that cost Former Secretary Noem her job. It also wasn’t just “BlanketGate”. It also wasn’t just the deaths of Alex Pretti and Renee Nicole Good. It also wasn’t just an alleged years-long affair with former Trump Campaign Manager Corey Lewandowski. It also wasn’t just changing FEMA dollar grants to a $100,000 ceiling before requiring her personal approval, creating half a billion dollars of backlogged requests. It also wasn’t just a $220 Million-Dollar ad campaign that featured her prominently and was given to a company created not even two weeks before the contract, which had personal connections to Noem. 

It wasn’t just any “one” thing. However, if one had to be selected, the “one” thing that lost Noem her position was her own Hubris. It was that ego, when backed into a corner under oath testifying before Congress, that made Kristi Noem say, “President Trump knew everything I was doing, what it cost, and approved it all.” It wasn’t long after that that President Trump said, “I spent less money than that to become President. I didn’t know about it.” 

Both statements cannot be true at the same time. Kristi Noem expected to be able to do whatever she wanted, as she did as the former Governor of South Dakota, and assumed the President would take some flak for her. But more than anything else, President Trump looks for loyalty in his cabinet, not someone prepared to throw him under the bus and use him as a shield during Congressional scrutiny under oath.

However, former Secretary Noem and President Trump have either a great relationship or the potential to cause each other great harm. Normally, when a professional relationship with President Trump ends, it ends in a fireball; with the President calling the person on the way out of the door a colorful variety of words and the person leaving calling the President worse, we’ve witnessed this many times: Rex Tillerson, General Mattis, John Esper, etc., the list goes on. Instead, Trump thanked her for her time and created a new job for her- seemingly out of thin air as Special Envoy to the Shield of the Americas Program.

Enter, Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma. Formerly undefeated MMA Fighter, former plumber, and now the candidate for Secretary of Homeland Security pending his confirmation by the Senate. With the Senate currently controlled by Republicans, and Democratic Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania saying he’ll vote *Yes* as well, it’s unlikely that Mullin will not ascend to the new role he’s been selected for. 

Is he a good pick? Time will tell, I predict he will not be in the media promoting his image as much as former Secretary Noem did, although he shouldn’t be considered a softer touch. Senator Mullin is a hawk on immigration policy and border security. We could likely see a national uptick in ICE deportation activity and stronger use of Border Patrol.

I was asked last weekend if I predicted a Kristi Noem run for office back here in South Dakota, now that she has left DHS. I think if she had been fired even a month earlier, the answer would have probably been “Yes”, but the time left doesn’t leave her as much time as she would like to form her strategy. I don’t believe the signature requirements to get on the ballot would be a problem, and if she pulled the trigger, she could have all the necessary signatures within a day or two. Senator Rounds already has the Trump nod, which serves as the current litmus test for a majority of Republican Voters in South Dakota today, complicating her opportunities. I’d bet $20 she doesn’t run, but I wouldn’t bet the ranch.

All that being said, if Kristi Noem decides to give Mike Rounds a Primary Challenge for his Senate Seat, I would wager she wins. Simply because calculated ambition is her strength, and she won’t run if she doesn’t have a winning strategy. Anyone who’s ever bet against Kristi Noem politically has lost, and Senator Rounds facing more disapproval than ever from his constituents wouldn’t be the first to change her winning streak.