The Memorandum of Understanding, or the MoU, is the official name for the “peace deal” the Trump Administration is bragging about. It’s maybe not the worst deal of all time, but it could make the top ten. When you trade permanent leverage for temporary optics and a little political breathing room, it’s surrender with better branding: the international version of “quiet quitting” your job. 

Ultimately, the MoU gives Iran everything it needs starting now and leaves everything it wants on the table for later. We give them immediate money. We end our sanctions. We guarantee their safety. But all of our goals: stopping Iran from getting nukes, regime change, justice for Iranian civilians, ending state-sponsored terror, are either ignored like they never mattered or kicked down the road for a future administration to deal with. 

The Strait of Hormuz is the clearest example. Iran historically controlled it, and until this war, despite other hostilities, it moved 20% of the world’s oil freely. The MoU has Iran agreeing to reopen the Strait “toll-free” for 60 days. “Toll-free for 60 days” isn’t a win. It’s a failure. Turning a vital chokepoint into “pay for access on day 61” is the core problem. We have naval blockades in the Strait now. When we remove those ships and start signing oil waivers, we give up current leverage for a 60-day rental. After 60 days, Iran has already previewed plans to charge fees. Trump says it will be “toll-free, period.” Iran never agreed to that. We traded a permanent pressure point for a two-month photo op on a waterway that USED to be free before the War. 

Most nonproliferation deals work the other way: establish limits first, grant relief second. This one reverses that common sense logic. The U.S. immediately begins releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets. We lift naval blockades. We guarantee Iran’s security. We start ending economic sanctions. Then, 30 days later, nuclear talks begin. Cash now and promises later. Iran’s economy gets a golden ticket, and our position of strength – the one 13 Americans and countless Iranian civilians died for – evaporates. 

In addition to sanctions relief and the unfreezing of assets, a $300 billion reconstruction fund will be established for Iran. We’re told our tax dollars won’t fund it, but it only exists because of U.S. waivers. How many times will we blow a country to pieces and then find a way to put it back together? In the Middle East particularly, we keep making the same bad decision.

The fatal flaw of the MoU is the sunset clause. If we can’t trust Iran and this regime with nuclear weapons today, there’s no reason to think they’ll be trustworthy in 5-20 years (likely 12-15). Per the MoU, we place a moratorium on enrichment for that period, and when it expires, they’re free to enrich again, legally, with all infrastructure intact. The secret Iranian Fordow base stays underground. Centrifuges get capped and put in timeout. 

“Nuclear Iran” and “missile Iran” mean the same thing when the state gets legal permission to go nuclear. We imposed no linkage between sanctions relief and missile limits. Iran keeps building its conventional arsenal and the technology for future nuclear-capable warheads. We negotiated gun control without discussing ammunition. 

This MoU takes pressure off the table in exchange for 60 days of quiet shipping and loose promises. Iran gets sanctions relief, cash, security guarantees, and a legal path to large-scale enrichment in less than two decades. America gets a photo op and a Strait that will be contested again on day 61. 

Years of sanctions, espionage, and four months of armed conflict to convince Iran to “pause” its nuclear program before becoming a legitimate nuclear state. We don’t get them to stop funding terrorism. We don’t get them to quit developing missiles. Instead, we pay them billions and give them time to improve technology, hide new sites, and wait out a couple more U.S. administrations. 

A good deal protects us, our allies, and the world from a more dangerous Iran while strengthening our position. This MoU does none of that. It doesn’t even mention Israel by name… confusing when we went to war for them in the first place.

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